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CALIFORNIA CLIMATE CHANGE CENTER

UNIVERSITY of CALIFORNIA at BERKELEY

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ONGOING RESEARCH ACTIVITIES

Energy Balances for California

The existing data on the breakdown of energy use in California by type of fuel, sector of use, and type of use are derived from national-level information compiled by the US Energy Information Agency and have been found to be inaccurate for California as well as to be incomplete. This project, conducted by a team of researchers at the Lawrence Berkley National Laboratory (LBNL) is developing a news set of energy balances for California covering the period 1990-2000 based on an extensive array of both national and state level sources.

Research Leader
Lynn Price, Deputy Leader of International Energy Studies Group, LBNL

Regional Economic Modeling

We are developing a new state-of-the-art computable general equilibrium model of the California economy, designed specifically to analyze climate change impacts and greenhouse gas emission reduction policies in California. This builds on and extends the California Dynamic Revenue Analysis Model developed by Professor Peter Berck for use by the California Department of Finance and the California Air Resources Board. The new Berkeley model incorporates more sectoral detail in order to highlight the issues relevant for climate assessment analysis, especially the energy and water-related sectors. It provides a dynamic treatment of investment and capital stocks in order to perform multi-year simulations of sectoral impacts on capital accumulation.  Future work includes a spatial disaggregation of the statewide model to allow for sub-regional analysis of economic impacts.

Research Team
Professor Peter Berck, ARE Department, Berkeley.
Professor David Roland-Holst, ARE Department, Berkeley
Professor Maximilian Aufhammer, ARE Department, Berkeley
Professor Michael Hanemann, ARE Department & GSPP, Berkeley

The California Water System

The major pathway by which climate change will affect the California economy is through its impact on the California water system. About three quarters of the state’s precipitation falls north of Sacramento, but about 70% of all agricultural and urban water use in California occurs south of Sacramento; roughly 80% of the state’s precipitation falls between October and March, but about three quarters of all the water use in California occurs in the spring and summer, between April and September. Thus, the problem with water in California is not just aridity: it is bringing water and people together at the correct time and in the correct location, which involves not only hydrology but also engineering, institutions, law and economics.  

In California, climate change is likely to severely exacerbate the mismatch between where and when rain falls and where and when people need to use water. To assess these impacts we are conducting a broad suite of studies on various aspects on the California water system. The overall research involves six main components: (1) Measure the existing reliability (degree of certainty) of the water supply for various irrigation districts and urban water agencies around the state. (2) Using regression analysis based on cross-section and time-series data, measure the economic consequences of differences in supply reliability for irrigation districts in California, and develop economic loss functions for changes in reliability. (3) Using regression analysis based on cross-section and time series data on urban water use, measure short- and long-run loss functions for shortages in urban water supply in California. (4) Project future agricultural and urban water demand and supply in California in the absence of climate change. (5) Identify the implications of climate change scenarios for the future supply reliability of urban and agricultural water agencies in California. (6) Assess the economic consequences of future changes in supply reliability for urban and agricultural water users in California.  

Research Team:
Dr. Larry Dale, LBNL
Professor John Dracup, CEE Department, Berkeley
Professor Anthony Fisher, ARE Department, Berkeley
Professor Michael Hanemann, ARE Department & GSPP, Berkeley
Dr. Norman Miller, LBNL
Professor Wolfram Schlenker, Economics Department, UC San Diego 

Urban Growth and Future Water and Energy Use in California

California’s population is expected to grow by an average of about half a million people per year for the next thirty years or more. Moreover, much of the urban growth is likely to be located in inland areas where the climate is warmer than in the coastal areas where most of the existing urban population is located.  This study analyzes the impact of housing density, vintage and location on residential water and energy use, and combines the results with forecasts of the future location of urban growth in California in order to project future trends in urban water and energy use in California.

Research Team:
Dr. Larry Dale, LBNL
Professor Michael Hanemann, ARE Department & GSPP, Berkeley
Professor John Landis, CRP Department, Berkeley

Technical Change and the Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in California

The characteristics and determinants of technological innovation and diffusion, and the technology adoption decisions by consumers and firms, are critical factors in estimating the costs and benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, particularly those arising from energy use. In certain circumstances, government actions in diverse ways can be highly influential in the decisions of organizations both to engage in and to manage innovation. This has been analyzed previously with specific reference to the control of conventional pollutants, such as sulfur dioxide emissions from stationary sources, in a national context. The present research extends the case study approach to the control of greenhouse gas emissions and to contexts specifically relevant to California

Research Leader
Professor Margaret Taylor, GSPP, Berkeley

An Emissions Market Approach to Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in California

For pollutants such as greenhouse gasses where the specific location of the emission has essentially no effect on the damage caused by the emission, markets for tradable emissions permits are an economically efficient tool for controlling and reducing emissions. The present research assesses the potential for greenhouse-gas emissions trading markets in California and explores how a market might be designed and implemented, given the existing experience with markets of this type for other pollutants including SO₂ and NO_x.

Research Team
Professor Alex Farrell, ERG, Berkeley
Dr. Blas Pérez Henríquez, GSPP, Berkeley
Professor David Roland-Holst, ARE Department, Berkeley
Professor Michael Hanemann, ARE Department & GSPP, Berkeley

FURTHER INFORMATION

Some preliminary results of the research being conducted at the Berkeley Center were presented at the California Climate Change Center’s First Annual Climate Change Conference held in Sacramento on June 9-10, 2004. For the agenda and abstracts of papers presented at the conference, go to: http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2004_conference/index.html

**last updated:  May 2006**

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